Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Building a Better Gold/Silver Spread

Yes, I realize the blog has been morphing into my simply posting links to articles I am writing for other blogs, but I assure you there's still original content to be had here.
The basic idea is that, since gold and the US Dollar are highly correlated, and gold and silver are highly correlated, while silver and the dollar are NOT highly correlated, you can use silver coupled with the USD exchange rate in a multivariate model to observe statistical deviations from historical norms.
The takeaway? Even though past performance does not guarantee of future returns, according to this model at least, gold is trading well above its historical expectation for the current values of silver and the dollar. If you buy into the model, the play would be to short gold, buy silver, and buy a foreign currency with US Dollars.

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